Optima Camelview Village Seeing Trouble

Using tax records and MLS data we see that sixteen condos at Optima Camelview Village in Scottsdale have been foreclosed upon and are now bank owned.  Of those, eleven are on the market for sale by the lender.  There is no way for us to know how many of these will ultimately go into foreclosure but we would not be surprised if 35-50% (or more) of the buyers there are/were investors (currently its sister building, Optima Biltmore Towers, is 50% leased which supports our 35-50% investor opinion).  If Optima Camelview Village has a comparable ratio of investors to “owner occupants” then you can expect to see MANY MANY more foreclosures in this 700 condo community.  And with more foreclosures come…more foreclosures.  As condo owners begin going belly up, prices go down, HOA fees often go up, there is more and more rental competition (which drives prices down) and all this can add up to more owners throwing up their hands and giving up.  To make matters worse Fannie Mae just revised its underwriting guidelines making it even more difficult to obtain loans in condo communities like these (see Trouble at Vale Lofts for more info).  With fewer buyers being able to qualify for loans you can bet things will get worse before better.  downward pressure on prices, puts negative pressure on the HOA and can cause it to raise condo fees.  We are not suggesting that all the investors will lose their properties to their lenders but we do believe that there are more foreclosures coming down the road.

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9 Comments so far (Add 1 more)

  1. I wonder if any of these properties have now made it to a tax deed sale? I believe the redemption period is three years. If defaults on mortgages are increasing as is the case in most states, then some great bargains could be found. Some feedback on this would be nice if you could. Thanks

    1. Treasure Hunter on July 26th, 2010 at 6:03 am

  2. I am curious if anyone has had a recent appraisal of their condo at Camelview? I would really like to refinance mine and get a much better rate on my mortgage, but I’m sure these foreclosures have impacted appraisal values considerably, and doubt i’ll be able to refi. Anyone have a recent appraisal? What was the appraised price/SF? Thanks.

    2. Doug on September 30th, 2009 at 11:24 am

  3. In 2012 I will be in the market for a loft either in Phoenix or Las Vegas. I definitely like the location of Optima Camelview. I’m in the meantime an interested observer and will continue buying Arizona municipal bonds and gold bullion to save for my purchase.

    3. Bill on September 20th, 2009 at 6:53 pm

  4. Please forward list of forclosed condos

    4. herb on August 19th, 2009 at 1:22 pm

  5. Prices at Optima Camelview are being affected by the bank owned and short sale listings (mostly short sales in this community right now). In the first half of 2008 resale prices dropped 18% from the average price in 2007. In the second half of 2008 prices dropped another 7.12%. So far in 2009 prices have dropped another 10.18%. We expect to see more foreclosures and bank owned listings in 2009.

    5. Salvia on April 17th, 2009 at 5:11 am

  6. Aaron – after reading your most recent comment I reread my last comment. I am sorry but I made a typo. I did not mean to say that “I hope that you are wrong” but instead I meant to write that I hope that you are right. Sorry if my mistake sounded like I was taunting you are something. Good luck with your purchase. I truly wish you well. BTW, I will edit my comment made March 21st so that others won’t be confused by the mistake.

    6. Will Daly on March 24th, 2009 at 8:41 am

  7. Mr. Daly, thank you so much for the recommendation to delve further into Optima properties. We learned that the rental rate at Biltmore Towers is not 50%, but double-digits below that. However, as my wife and I have been deeply interested in purchasing at Camelview, we also wanted to conduct our due diligence re your foreclosure prediction. Happily, and based on your datum of 16, or 2% of the development, we learned from the the Dept. of Real Estate that the percentage is FAR BELOW the national average of 4-6% – and in a local market (Valley) that is challenged and skews the national average upwards, in fact. We are very excited about the prospect of owning a unit here, and know from our friends who were early purchasers that they have already realized attractive gains.

    7. Aaron Ariem on March 24th, 2009 at 7:11 am

  8. Aaron – I hope that you are wrong and if you have evidence to support another opinion I would love to see it AND I will post a retraction. However, we watch the market very closely and our information convinces us that the rental percentage is 50% or very close to it. Your friends who own an Optima Biltmore condo can get the exact number from the HOA as it tracks such things.

    8. Will Daly on March 21st, 2009 at 2:00 pm

  9. As we have many friends and some family members at both Biltmore and Camelview, and they associate or socialize regularly with their resident (owner) neighbors, we were curious where you obtained a 50% renter ratio at Biltmore?

    9. Aaron Ariem on March 21st, 2009 at 12:46 pm

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