Why Is Real Estate Inventory Down….. Sales!

We got several responses to last weeks blog; some in agreement and some in disagreement.  One of the people who disagreed with the assessment said that the only reason that “actively for sale” properties are down is because a person would have to be “crazy” to try to sell their homes or condos in today’s market.  The person was responding to my point that currently there are approximately 6,300 homes or condominiums actively for sale each month, a number almost half of the very high numbers we saw during the depths of our bust.

No one can know the mind-set of all the various sellers or potential sellers in the Valley.  Additionally, the evidence does not support this person’s opinion.  “Closings”, the number of properties that sell each month, are way up.  In fact, in Phoenix as a whole, the number of closings each month is approximately 1,700 homes and condos.  That’s over four times as many as in January 2008, the period with the fewest closings in seven years.  The 1,700 is as many as what was selling in 2004 and 2005, the boom years in Phoenix.

Some people don’t want to see the new reality, that market activity is up, more and more people are buying, and as a result, inventory is going down.  Now, just like I said last week, these numbers are for real estate in the Valley as a whole and are not condominium or urban condo specific.  While some urban condo buildings have not yet “hit bottom” there are many others that are performing nicely and offer great buying opportunities.  At We Know Urban Realty, we study the urban market daily, we analyze the numbers, we talk to other experts, and we develop solid buying and selling strategies for our clients.  If you are considering buying a high rise condo or loft, give us a call.

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10 Comments so far (Add 1 more)

  1. This is very misleading.

    1. Press Box Info on June 22nd, 2010 at 9:34 pm
  2. The dollar are much less but to repeat a sale is a sale. Anyone that bought a bargain in late 2008 or 2009 will be able to sell at a profit in 2010.

    2. Arizona Homes For Sa on April 20th, 2010 at 11:21 pm
  3. Our economy is really improving right now, real estate are going strong this year, you got to be wiser in investing so you wotn waste your money

    3. Austin Homes 4 Sale on April 20th, 2010 at 11:19 pm
  4. It’s the biggest mess the states seen in Real Estate drops.As unemployment persists and more foreclosures hit the market prices should keep headed south.Prices went up from 1997 to 2007, it’ll take longer than a couple of years to give most of that back.

    4. Dean Graziosis Scam on April 8th, 2010 at 5:49 am
  5. That is correct. Until the surplus is gone the prices will not appreciate. Let me emphasize that the MLS sales do not include Trustee sales, Auctions or For sale by owner. With those included the unit sales would be greater than 2004 or 2005. The $ are much less but to repeat a sale is a sale. Anyone that bought a bargain in late 2008 or 2009 will be able to sell at a profit in 2010.

    5. Joseph Lee on December 23rd, 2009 at 5:45 pm
  6. Joseph – So if I’m reading your data correctly it seems that you too see the number of sales today to being roughly comparable to sales during 2004 and 2005. Folks, we recognize that a very large number of these sales are foreclosures and short sales but who cares? Sales are sales. And sales help to keep inventories down which leads to price appreciation and a healthier market. Buy a foreclosure now before prices and/or interest rates go up.

    6. Will Daly on December 19th, 2009 at 8:47 pm
  7. Not all cities are created equal:

    2008 (12/17) 2009 (12/17)
    All counties 56,434 88,478
    Phoenix 12,285 24,346
    Scottsdale 4,309 5,459
    Paradie Valley 174 255

    This is just MLS and does not include Trustee sales,
    Auctions or FISBOS.

    Phoenix MLS had 25,773 in 2004 and 26,615 in 2005.

    7. Joseph Lee on December 18th, 2009 at 4:51 pm
  8. Brandon – I don’t disagree with the inflation comments and you may be right in stating that the increase in sales is due to the tax incentive and investors. However, I must say that I have sold several homes recently and the buyers were not overly motivated by the tax incentive nor were they investors. So, in my experience, a portion of buyers are folks just looking for a place to live. Oh, and I also agree that buyers today should look at living in the property for some time, I don’t know what that means in years, but I am not a fan of flipping houses, never have been. W

    8. Will Daly on December 14th, 2009 at 11:27 pm
  9. interesting to see the parallels between the US property market and UK market. i would say things have got worse at the tail end of this year, rather than better. it’s definitely still a buyers market, with bargain basement prices to be had.

    9. managedforexaccounts on December 11th, 2009 at 9:03 pm
  10. The sales are up because the government is bribing people $8,000 to buy houses. It’s a temporary artificial inflation. That and cash investors are buying up cheap places and downgrading condo conversions back into apartments. When the tax credit expires and the artificial incentives are removed we can get an accurate look at where the market actually is. We may start to see with hyperinflation prices skyrocket, but the value will be the same. Inventory is down because the banks have slowed down foreclosing on people, and because everyone KNOWS it’s not a good time to sell.

    I have a friend who lost his job well over a year ago. The bank has yet to foreclose on him and actually reduced his payments IN HALF, to the point where he is able to afford to make payments using just his unemployment checks…and even then only every couple months. Unemployed, for almost two years he has been able to stay in his house paying 700 every other month as opposed to the 1500 per month he had been paying. What about all the people who have been surviving on unemployment the past year? Those benefits will end eventually. How many others in the same boat? Who knows.

    Now is a pretty good time to buy because of the low interest rates and the tax credit, both of which will not last. But be prepared to be stay there a long time.

    If the market were genuinely improving then one would be talking about what a great time to sell it is.

    10. brandon adamson on December 10th, 2009 at 6:50 pm

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