What data have you seen that supports your claim that “there are very few occupancy buyers”? I’m not saying it doesn’t exist but I sure haven’t seen it. Our experience is just the opposite of your claim. We are selling properties to what we call “owner occs” meaning folks who intend to live in/occupy the property. Yes, there are investors too but with underwriting guidelines so tight it’s super hard for investors to buy high rise condos; I’m not saying it isn’t happening I’m just saying that I think you are understating the number of owner occs participating in the market. Also we see strong evidence that downtown Phoenix is a desireable place to live AND becoming more desireable. People do want to live there. However, they have not bought there until now because the prices were so high. Sounds like a free market at work.

Incentives? Yes they exist and they are influencing the market. I am very concerned about the affects of rising interest rates and have written candidly on the topic. But I also know that many people have been waiting on the side lines 3-4 years to buy and some of them feel comfortable enough now to move forward.

We do NOT tell our clients that we are at the bottom of the market. We tell them that we believe we are at or near the bottom but that we don’t know for sure and that we don’t think anyone knows for sure. However, for people who want to make a change now, who want to take advantage of the lower interest rates and expect to “buy and hold” for five or more years that this MIGHT be a good time for them to buy.

You can still argue that the market will take a “big” hit this summer. Frankly, I don’t think anyone truly knows what will happen and when; not even the vaunted economists that you seem to follow. Heck, I have yet to find an economist that hits projections dead on. I don’t think that it is possible to know what and when something will happen today given the enormous size and complexity of our economy.

You have called people here names (e.g. “bubble-headed delusional optimists”). I suspect that this is an expression of your anger, fear or frustration with the market, the economy, our government or whatever. I too am frustrated. And who knows, maybe you are right with your predictions? But until I actually see that, I’m going to take data, do the best I can to understand it and give my opinion…without calling people derogatory names.

Only long-term investments are safe right now. The problem with Phoenix downtown is that there are SO many shorts and foreclosures, and SO many investors and owners who are now renting out their places, that prices are continuing to fall.

If you own a car lot, and you are selling cars at a loss, and you see MORE cars at a loss this month than last month, that is NOT a good thing. WTF is wrong with you people?

There are multiple issues that are going to take the froth off this mini-investor snatch bubble that is going on right now; The end of 1st time home buyer tax credit, the end of the fed MBS buy-backs near end of March, and the new FHA condo requirements that are coming out. This market is completely artificially stimulated. There are very very very few occupancy buyers out there right now for the downtown condo market.

I would expect the downtown condo market to take a BIG hit come this summer. Prices will go stable in 2011, NOT 2010, and then will go nowhere until a real job recovery happens, which is currently projected by respected, professional, economists to not happen until “2014 or later”.