Urban Update

You might remember me writing about a purchase that fell through at The Vale because the Buyer’s lender would not make the loan because the Home Owner Association (HOA) at The Vale was in financial trouble with 25% of the condo owners behind on paying their fees.  It was my opinion that until the HOA got its financial house in order, condo sellers would have an extremely difficult time selling there and prices would most likely drop.  I learned last week that the same condo refernced in the post recently sold to a cash buyer for $22,000 less than it had previously “sold” for.  Ouch!

Last week I learned of another sale that fell through for the same reason but at a different condo community; this time 525 Town Lake.  In this case the HOA receipts at 525 Town Lake are 36% under budget.  Expect prices there to drop as a result.  But be careful not to get lured just by the low prices as there is potential risk in buying in a community where the HOA is unstable or at financial risk.  I’m not saying not to buy there, just know what you’re getting into and know potential risk before doing so.

The AZ Rep reported today about problems at Summit at Copper Square.  I’m not privy to the financial matters at Summit but I will say this; the owner David Wallach is very hands-on and working hard to see the high rise condo building through these tough times.   He is currently renting out condos at very very competitive prices (contact us for details or to see the condos).  The added cash flow from the rentals will hopefully keep things afloat.   It’s amazing what a difference just a few months made during the boom/bust cycle.  Summit delivered condos starting roughly December 2007 and closed approximately half the units.  If construction had finished six months earlier I think that most of the condos would have closed.  But then again, if construction had been completed six months later I bet only 10% of the condo buyers would have closed.  

BTW, Mr. Wallach if you’d like a venue to refute or add to today’s article, feel free to e-mail me your observations or comments and I will gladly post them to this site.

Things have been pretty quiet at Century Plaza, at least in our circle.    For a while there we were hearing from prospective investors every single week.  Over the last month we have only heard from one party.  The guy was very very confident that he and his company would soon own Century Plaza.  IF they do buy the high rise and IF they are able to offer the condos at the prices he shared with me then expect some really great bargains in the future.  Keep watching this web site or give us a call to learn more.

I swung by Stella to shoot more photos last week; what a great community!  I’d put the quality, style and overall look up against ANY (except Galleries at Turney) infill row house style project in town.  I’ll post the photos in the next couple days so you can see for yourself.

Stay tuned for more…

How Can Centerpoint High Rise Condominiums Survive?

There have been numerous newspaper articles reporting on the financial woes for Avenue Communities and its downtown Tempe high rise condo developement, Centerpoint.

What I have not understood is how can a project that has sold 20-25% of its condominiums over the last three years survive current market conditions AND the bankruptcy of its construction lender?

But I’m starting to understand. Here’s my take on it:

The construction lender referenced above, Mortgages Limited, funded approximately $100 million of a $175 million loan. So they funded approximately $75 million less than the loan commitment stipulated. Then the company filed bankruptcy.

Avenue Communites is out looking for lenders to supply the $75 million so that it can complete construction of the building.

One can easily understand that a lender might be hesitant to loan $75 million on a $200 million project in today’s market. However, what if the $75 million takes priority over the $100 million already spent? In other words the new lender would loan $75 million for assets valued at $200 million. That seems pretty safe even today doesn’t it?

Apparently this is possible because the bankruptcy court can force the first lender (the $100 million lender) to subordinate to the next lender (meaning going from first position to second position) thus changing them from a first mortgage to a second mortgage if you will.

I guess the reason this is allowed is because it is better for the $100 million lender to be in a position if doing so is the only way to save the project. This way the lender as a chance to get something instead of all of nothing.

What I haven’t understood is that if the project was originally projected to cost $200 million and profits were based on 2005 prices or higher and prices have gone down since 2005 then how can the project survive?

A case can easily be made that new construction high rise condo prices have gone down a minimum of 30% and maybe as much as 50% over the last three years. IF this is true then total sales could end up as low as $130 million (taking into account a 30% profit for the developer). So how does that work? Total sales of $130 million for a project that cost $200 million to build?

I’m guessing that the new lender, the one coming in with $75 million gets paid principal plus interest or $85 million, the original lender which ended up in second position gets paid $.30 for every dollar loaned or $30 million and then the developer gets the rest (about $15 million). But guess what? the project would be successful at these prices and survive!!! Granted the developer would not make as much profit as they had expected and the original lender would lose a ton of money but again, something is better than nothing. And of course, if I’m wrong about the value of high rise condos today and they actually sell for more then the developer and the second lender end up with more in their pockets.

And, Tempe and the Valley would see the completion of a fantastic urban community. One that would add significantly to the popularity and ultimate success of downtown Tempe.

NOTE: PLEASE KNOW THAT I AM TOTALLY PULLING THESE NUMBERS OUT OF THE AIR. I HAVE ZERO INSIDE INFORMATION. I AM PROBABLY WAY OFF ON THE VALUE OF THE FINISHED CONDOMINIUMS, THE DEVELOPER’S PROFIT, THE LENDER’S INTEREST AND THE AMOUNT THAT THE SECOND LENDER WOULD LOSE BUT AT LEAST THIS MAKES SOME SENSE. I WELCOME ANYONE TO PLEASE CONTRIBUTE TO THIS ARTICLE (LEAVE A COMMENT OR E-MAIL YOUR INPUT TO ME AND I’LL POST IT FOR YOU) ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE ANY EXPERIENCE OR KNOWLEDGE IN SUCH MATTERS.

We would love to see Centerpoint succeed and any dialogue that helps us better understand how that might be possible would be much appreciated.

Hope for Tempe Mill Avenue

The Bad News
Many retail stores along Tempe Mill Avenue have failed and closed and some people say that the area is the most “depressed” that it has been in the last thirty five years.

How did this happen? Well clearly part of the reason is that retail sales across the country are down. But this does not explain the depth of the problem.

A big part of the problem is that the transition from a largely college student population to a demographic including high rise condo dwellers has not been easy. Retail rental rates along Mill Avenue skyrocketed in anticipation of a coming population “boom” of these more affluent condo owners.

The problem was that the boom was postponed as high rise condo sales plummeted and construction of thousands of units came to a halt or were cancelled altogether. Of the condos that were completed many many of them were purchased by investors. These investors found themselves competing with one another for a limited number of investors and rents went down.

So, we saw the rents at local shops go up, fewer than expected people moving to the area, and many of the people who did move to the area being of a lower economic demographic than what had been expected.

The Good News
Tempe is hot. The street scene is vibrant and romantic like that found in other dense cities around the world (albeit at a much smaller scale) like Manhattan, London or Amsterdam. It has a young energetic population that lives nearby and spends time and money on the street. It is bordered by a finite geographic feature (ie The Lake) which encourages denser vertical growth vs. sprawl. It’s a relatively small and compact area that further adds to the energy. AND the coming new light rail cuts through the center of it.

Tempe will turn around.

The problems with Centerpoint High Rise Condominiums will work themselves out. With this, five hundred or more people will take up residence just off Mill Avenue. Retail rents won’t come down but landlords will offer smaller store fronts which will be more affordable for store owners. Smaller shops will mean more shops. More shops will mean a wider variety of products. A wider variety of products will appeal to more people and business WILL boom. As the area gains in popularity (and the real estate market recovers) condo rental rates will go up and more affluent renters will join the area, thereby feeding the economic machine.

With this renewed success of Mill Avenue more condos will be built and true synergy will occur.

The State of Centerpoint High Rise

Several articles have run recently regarding the financial challenges facing Centerpoint High Rise community in Tempe.

The gist of the articles suggest that all is fine with the development per Ken Losch, one of the principals of Avenue Communities, the developer of Centerpoint. In general, these kinds of articles don’t really offer any kind of substantive information but are really more filler and background info.

However, we did glean something of value; at least we think we did. Rumors have been circulating that sales at Centerpoint are approximately 30%. The question was whether that was 30% of the first tower alone or 30% of the two high rise towers combined. We had suspected that it was 30% of the first tower only
and we now believe we have confirmation thanks to the East Valley Tribune article http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/120971.

In that article Losch is quoted as saying that they have sales of approximately $24 million. The article also confirmed that tower one has 171 units while the second tower has 204. Well, $24 million in sales would equal approximately 30% of 171 units. This is based on a very rough guestimate that works out as follows:

Take an average sales price of $500,000 (a total guess) and divide that into $24,000,000 to get 48 units. Divide 48 by 171 to get 28.07%. If we are wrong and the average sales price is higher then that would mean even fewer than 30% have sold. If the actual cost per unit is lower then the percentage of units sold would go up. We feel pretty safe using a number of $500,000.

If our numbers are right (and again please understand that we are guessing) and only 30% of the first tower has sold and zero condominiums have sold in the second tower then Avenue Communities has a looooong road ahead of them.

Now, please know that we are huge fans of Centerpoint and Ken Losch and we are totally rooting for the success of Centerpoint. We believe it is bringing a truly urban experience to the most urban city in the Valley, Tempe. However, we are certainly concerned.

What’s the Deal With Centerpoint Redevelopment?

During our last high rise and loft condo tour of Tempe Town Lake and Mill Avenue, several tour attendees asked about the status of the DMB redevelopment of Centerpoint on Mill, the retail, office, restaurant and movie cinema mall on the northwest corner of Mill Avenue and University Drive.

DMB, developers of DC Ranch, Verrado, One Scottsdale and other wonderful communities owns Centerpoint on Mill. The original intention was to immediatley begin a massive redevelopment that would include replacing the existing office building with a taller one, tearing down the single story shops facing Mill in order to build multi-story story buildings with shops on the ground floor and residential condominiums above, more shops in front of what was Harkins movie theater, and a 20 story hotel to be built where the theater now stands.

While DMB was slowly emptying the site of retailers etc (not renewing leases) the real estate market slowed significantly thus causing DMB to postpone the plans. It began leasing up the vacant spaces to new shop owners etc and slowly the site has come back to life (albeit much less vibrant than it had been). Completion of Centerpoint on Mill is now projected to take about ten years.

Many people were sorry to see the movie theater go and asked if another will be built to replace it. The answer, at least for now, is no. The eleven theater complex had seen plummeting attendance due to competing theaters at Arizona Mills and the new one opened at Tempe Marketplace making the the Mill Avenue theater unprofitable and thereby not viable. I believe this answer. My wife and I never had a problem catching a movie there and it always seemed to be no more than 25% occupied at best. I wondered how long it would survive although I did not understand why it was not more popular.

Update on Merrion Square

Merrion Square on University and Beck in Tempe was a great concept from the get go. 8 upscale live/work condos with retail on the ground floor and two stories of livable space above. I remember prices being high back in 2006 when construction started but had been told 4 of the 8 were under contract to purchase. Since that time construction had been proceeding at a relativley slow pace. Now it looks like the project is finished off and the pending sales have been canceled. The building stands for sale as a single property. None of the 8 live/work homes will be offered by the developer for individual sale. Asking price for the builiding–$2.85M.

It’s a shame to see that Merrion Square didn’t get the sales it needed to be completed as planned. Live/work is catching on in Tempe and the locals seem to love the idea of independant owners opening small businesses on the streetscape. University Drive has a ton of vehicle and pedestrian traffic and Merrion Square seems like a great location for business. Hopefully it will get sold and businesses/residents will start moving in.

Tempe Bus Tour Really Opened Some Eyes

Saturday turned out to be a great day for this month’s WeKnowUrban bus tour featuring properties in and around Tempe Town Lake and the Mill Ave district. The sky was clear, temperatures were cool and we had a great time showing folks everything Tempe has to offer. I really enjoy taking clients through the existing and developing urban and high rise projects, places like Centerpoint, Brownstones at Tempe, Hayden Ferry and Sotelo. Most people have heard something about some or all of these projects but they are hard to appreciate until you visit them in person. Add to that the diverse infill projects like Tempe Urban Living and 5th St. Lofts and you truly have something for everyone.
Saturday’s group experienced first hand sales presentations from the high rise projects currently under construction and toured the streets of downtown Tempe to see where everything is coming together. Sotelo provided coffee and snacks before we left and lunch after. Centerpoint treated us to a surprise snack prepared by Chef Troy in the display kitchen at their Discovery Center. So the folks on the tour given a ton of statistical information, personal property tours, a driving tour and nobody went away hungry!
This is the type of tour we do with clients on a regular basis in Tempe and other communities across the valley, but really it’s just the tip of the iceberg. There are many other existing, developing and proposed projects all over downtown Tempe. Projects both large and small, all with something different to offer. We also coordinate building tours of the construction sites of some of the most popular developments. We are happy to talk with you about your specific interests, then tailor a personal tour.
All of us at WeKnowUrban would like to thank the folks at Sotelo, Bridgeview, Brownstones at Tempe and Centerpoint for their support of the WeKnowUrban Tempe bus tour.
NEXT TOUR: Camelback Corridor. Click the tour tab on the www.weknowurban.com home page for more info.
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The WeKnowUrban High Rise and Loft Tour is Back!

Join the experts of WeKnowUrban.com, Saturday, October 13th for a two hour bus tour of “urban living” in and around Tempe Lake and the Mill Avenue District. We’ll give you insider information of what’s hot and what’s not in Tempe high rises and lofts. Featured properties will include Sotello Condominiums, Hayden Ferry High Rise, Onyx High Rise, Northshore, Lumina High Rise, Brownstones of Tempe, Centerpoint and others. For additional information or to reserve your spot on the tour call (602) 476-1881 or visit www.WeKnowUrban.com and click the “Urban Tour” tab at the top of the page.

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